Iraq on the Edge of Balance: Preserving Neutrality in a Divided Region

After the events of October 7, 2023, Iraq found itself in a very sensitive position. It was stuck between big international and regional powers. Iraq is no longer just a possible place for conflict between Iran and the US, it has become a daily test of how to keep balance between the Iraqi state and armed groups, and between being independent and being pulled into outside struggles.

In Baghdad, leaders adopted what can be described as “edge diplomacy.”“ This is a careful strategy meant to stop the country from sliding into full conflict, whether with the US or with Israel, while also keeping strong ties with Iran and other Arab neighbors.

Managing the Crisis… Not Engaging in It.

Even though there have been attacks on US bases in Iraq and sometimes strong reactions from Washington, the Iraqi government tried hard to calm the situation. It did not go for direct fighting, but it also didn’t give in to pressure from radical groups inside the country who wanted stronger action against the US.

Instead, Baghdad sent clear and measured messages that Iraq does not want to be a battleground for others’ wars. The government defended Iraqi sovereignty and the rule of law, and went further by exerting pressure on Iran-aligned armed groups inside the country, including arresting individuals whom official media described as “outlaws.”

This path has not been easy. Iraq still faces deep internal divisions, and many power centers, both official and unofficial, still control parts of the political system. That makes Iraq a place shared by big powers and non-state groups alike

Taking initiative, not just reacting

In recent months, Iraq has not merely reacted to regional developments but has taken concrete steps to present itself as a state with an independent role in the region. It participated in the Arab Summit in Bahrain and adopted a balanced and clear stance on regional issues. Iraq supported the rights of the Palestinian people without fully aligning with the so-called “Axis of Resistance,” and without engaging in normalization rhetoric with Israel.

Iraq also restarted communication with Syria. This move fits Iranian interests, but it also shows that Iraq wants some independence. In fact, some Iraqi groups close to Iran didn’t like this step, fearing it could reduce their traditional influence in Syrian affairs.

The hardest part: Power vs. Sovereignty

The biggest challenge for Iraq today is how to keep its sovereignty while there are armed groups inside the country that follow foreign agendas. These groups limit the government’s ability to make independent decisions about foreign policy. Every diplomatic move Iraq makes becomes a topic for internal fighting.

While the government tries to calm tensions with the US, it also faces attacks from Iran-backed groups at home who say the government is being too soft or giving in. This puts the leadership in a difficult spot between outside pressure and shaky internal politics.

A space to breathe

Iraq’s foreign policy since October 2023 is not just a reaction to crises. It is an effort, small but real, to rebuild Iraq’s place in the region as a real state, not just a place where others fight their battles. These last months have shown that Iraq can play a helpful role in reducing tensions, if it has enough political will and support.

However, to achieve this, the slogan “Iraq First” must evolve from mere rhetoric into a practical approach to decision-making. This requires strong political will to safeguard national sovereignty, consistent efforts to build a smart and balanced foreign policy, and serious action to limit the influence of non-state actors attempting to drag Iraq into regional conflicts. Only when the Iraqi state fully controls its decisions and reshapes its external relations in a way that serves the interests of its people can Iraq step back from the brink and reemerge as a serious and responsible regional actor.